Its All About Impact: The Winners of Over 100 Majors Prove It

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Nature , Vol. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Introduction to ocean acidification. Accessed October 4, Lindsey, R. Skip to main content.

Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Rebecca Lindsey. September 19, Human activities have increased the natural concentration of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, amplifying Earth's natural greenhouse effect. The global average amount of carbon dioxide hit a new record high in The ocean has absorbed enough carbon dioxide to lower its pH by 0. Share This:. Global Energy Balance. Atmospheric Composition. He correctly predicted the winner in 34 of the 37 contested Senate races. His congressional mid-term predictions were not as accurate as those made in , but were still within the reported confidence interval.

Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of Although throughout Silver devoted a lot of attention on his blog to the Republican party primaries, his first effort to handicap the Presidential general election appeared as the cover story in The New York Times Magazine a year prior to the election: "Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the Election". While publishing numerous stories on the Republican primary elections, in mid-February Silver reprised and updated his previous Magazine story with another one, "What Obama Should Do Next".

Silver published the first iteration of his general election forecasts on June 7, According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win electoral votes—21 more than the required for a majority. Obama then had an estimated On the morning of the November 6, , presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at A. At the conclusion of that day, when Mitt Romney had conceded to Barack Obama, Silver's model had correctly predicted the winner of every one of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls".

In the week leading up to the U. Silver has been criticized for inaccurate predictions. In January , journalist and blogger Colby Cosh criticized Silver's performance during the Massachusetts special Senate election , saying he was "still arguing as late as Thursday afternoon that [Martha] Coakley was the clear favourite; he changed his mind at midnight that evening and acknowledged that Scott Brown had a puncher's chance.

Silver's quantitative focus on polling data, without insight from experience in political organizing or journalism, has been a recurring critique from experienced commentators.

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Huffington Post columnist Geoffrey Dunn described Silver as someone who "has never organized a precinct in his life, much less walked one, pontificating about the dynamics in the electoral processes as if he actually understood them. Considerable criticism during the elections came from political conservatives, who argued that Silver's election projections were politically biased against Mitt Romney , the Republican candidate for President. The New York Times public editor Margaret Sullivan, while defending Silver's analysis, characterized the wager as "a bad idea" as it gave the appearance of a partisan motive for Silver, and "inappropriate" for someone perceived as a Times journalist although Silver was not a member of the newspaper's staff.

After a post-election appearance by Silver on Joe Scarborough's Morning Joe , Scarborough published what he called a " semi apology", in which he concluded:. I won't apologize to Mr. Silver for predicting an outcome that I had also been predicting for a year. But I do need to tell Nate I'm sorry for leaning in too hard and lumping him with pollsters whose methodology is as rigorous as the Simpsons ' strip mall physician, Dr.

For those sins and a multitude of others that I'm sure I don't even know about , I am sorry. Politics is a messy sport. And just as ball players who drink beer and eat fried chicken in dugouts across America can screw up the smartest sabermetrician's forecast, Nate Silver's formula is sure to let his fervent admirers down from time to time.

But judging from what I saw of him this morning, Nate is a grounded guy who admits as much in his book. I was too tough on him and there's a Silver's nondisclosure of the details of his analytical model has resulted in some skepticism. Washington Post journalist Ezra Klein wrote: "There are good criticisms to make of Silver's model, not the least of which is that, while Silver is almost tediously detailed about what's going on in the model, he won't give out the code, and without the code, we can't say with certainty how the model works. That last feature makes it unwise to use Silver's model as a straw stand-in for "science", as if the model had been fully specified in a peer-reviewed journal".

It dropped to 20 in the second week, before rising to 13 in the third, and remaining on the non-fiction hardback top 15 list for the following 13 weeks, with a highest weekly ranking of 4. The book describes methods of mathematical model-building using probability and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data e. Case studies in the book include baseball, elections, climate change , the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting.

These different topics illustrate different statistical principles. As a reviewer in The New York Times notes: "It's largely about evaluating predictions in a variety of fields, from finance to weather to epidemiology. We learn about a handful of successes: when, for instance, meteorologists predict a hurricane's landfall 72 hours in advance But mostly we learn about failures. It turns out we're not even close to predicting the next catastrophic earthquake or the spread of the next killer bird flu, despite the enormous amounts of brainpower trained on these questions in the past few decades".

Silver's self-unmasking at the end of May brought him a lot of publicity focused on his combined skill as both baseball statistician-forecaster and political statistician-forecaster, including articles about him in The Wall Street Journal , [] Newsweek , [] Science News , [] [] and his hometown Lansing State Journal. That Silver accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential race, in the face of numerous public attacks on his forecasts by critics, inspired many articles in the press, ranging from Gizmodo , [] to online and mainstream newspapers, [] news and commentary magazines, [] business media, [] trade journals, [] media about media, [] and Scientific American , [] as well as a feature interview on The Today Show , [] a return appearance on The Daily Show , [] and an appearance on Morning Joe.

Silver is referenced in the Syfy channel show The Magicians as an earth wizard who uses polling spells.

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In a interview with Charlie Rose he stated, "I'd say I am somewhere in between being a libertarian and a liberal. Silver is a grandnephew of geologists Caswell Silver and Leon Silver. Silver is openly gay. I've always had friends, but I've always come from an outside point of view. I think that's important. If you grow up gay, or in a household that's agnostic, when most people are religious, then from the get-go, you are saying that there are things that the majority of society believes that I don't believe", he told an interviewer in Silver discussed his sexuality in the context of growing up in East Lansing, in an article about the Supreme Court ruling Obergefell v.

Hodges in favor of recognizing same-sex marriage on the date of its announcement. He analyzed the speed of the change of public sentiment, pointing out that the change over only several decades has been palpable to the current generations. Silver has long been interested in fantasy baseball , especially Scoresheet Baseball.

Silver plays poker semi-professionally. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. This article is about the author and statistician. For the American football player, see Nate Silver quarterback.


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  8. American pundit and writer born East Lansing , Michigan , U. Main article: FiveThirtyEight. Play media. Main article: FiveThirtyEight: U. Main article: The Signal and the Noise. August 13, Archived from the original on February 20, Retrieved August 21, Archived from the original on May 8, Retrieved May 8, London: The Telegragh.

    The Power of Small Wins

    Archived from the original on November 8, Retrieved November 8, Archived from the original on December 10, Retrieved December 5, October 8, Archived from the original on October 24, July 5, Archived from the original on July 25, Archived from the original on June 29, Archived from the original on August 27, This source also gives the origin of Silver's middle name, Read, which was shared by his mother's mother and sister.

    Silver has a namesake, "Nathaniel Read" in the family line that dates from the early 18th century. Archived from the original on March 29, Archived from the original on February 27, Retrieved November 4, Archived from the original on July 29, The New York Times. Archived from the original on October 18, Retrieved July 23, The Victory Lab. Crown Publishing Group. Archived from the original on October 26, Archived from the original on April 25, However, notably Public Policy Polling by itself correctly predicted the winner of every state Archived November 9, , at the Wayback Machine.

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